Despite 30 years of digitizing analogue information and
connecting devices to networks; despite the obvious explosion of eCommerce,
mobile, social media; despite the massive disruption to the music industry,
newspapers, books, retail, advertising; the digital technology revolution has
barely begun.
According to Cisco's former CTO, Padmasree Warrior, we've only
reached 1%
of the potential connectivity that we will see in the next decade. The
exponential growth in connectivity will be driven in part by connecting the
remaining 40-50% of the world's population who today do not have access to
broadband (most of the technology giants have ambitious programs in place to make
this happen via internet
balloons or solar
powered drones). But the real explosion in connectivity will come through
the embedding of sensors, chips and SIM cards into everyday objects – things we
wear, things in our home, our infrastructure, factories, machines, buildings,
cities; even a bottle of
beer can now be connected.
Connectivity on its own is not particularly disruptive, but the
combination of the explosion of connectivity with wave upon wave of new
technology, (including artificial intelligence, robotics, 3D printing,
blockchain etc) will transform previously dumb products into smart, connected
products and previously isolated “things” into nodes within smart,
self-learning networks. A connected thermostat that previously offered only remote
control access via a mobile device, may be transformed into a device that
optimises energy consumption and group-buys energy on behalf of a collective. A
medical device that checks blood pressure, may be transformed into a diagnostic
device that combines multiple sources of data and compares health data with
millions of users. Cars may be transformed from metal boxes on wheels into smart
fleets of autonomous driving taxis.
Today the speed of change is uncontrollable and unfathomable to most
businesses. Today a new technology can reach a critical mass of 50m users in
just 35 days. However, what’s both frightening and exciting in equal measure is
just how nascent some of these developments still are and how much disruption
is yet to occur.
- Within Healthcare - Genomics England aims to sequence 100,000 genomes, which would create 21 Petabytes of valuable data. A huge step forwards for medical science but still only 0.15% of the UK population.
- Within Automotive – we’ve already seen Tesla release a software update containing the capability for level 2 auto-pilot, but IHS Automotive estimate that it will be more like 2030, before we see self-driving only cars on our roads.
- Within energy, there are currently around 2 million smart meters already installed in UK households. Smart energy GB aims to see connect 26 million households by 2020, so today we’ve reached less than 10% penetration of smart meters.
- According to Canalys, the Global 3D printing market was $3,8bn in 2014, but is set to grow to $16.2bn by 2018. Today, the vast majority of people and businesses do not yet use a 3D printer.
- A slightly more advanced market (but one with an equally long way to go) is the industrial robotics market, where nanorobots may fuel the next wave of growth. However, the consumer robotics market is set to grow 7 times faster by 2019.
- After "60 years of false starts", the Artificial Intelligence market also looks set for exponential growth. Tractica estimate growth from a surprisingly low $202.5m in 2015 to $11.1bn by 2024
The combinations of these technology-driven developments will impact
every company in every industry sector. Companies that have previously only
digitized their front end web sites and apps, will see impact up and down the
value chain. If every car is connected and autonomous, will motor insurance be
needed? Will consumers still buy cars or will cities buy them under peer to
peer schemes? If every aspect of my health and wellbeing is connected, how will
my health insurance policy change? How will the healthcare system change from treatment
to prevention? How will the pharma sector shift from selling pills to delivering
outcomes? If robots are set to take 35% of UK jobs, what
new careers will emerge? If 3D printing significantly reduces customs and
excise duties, how will the tax systems around the world respond? Moreover, if
we are already 20
years behind the skills needed in the market today for cyber security, what
on earth will the deficit look like when we reach 50, 70, 90% connectivity?
The previous decade of technology-driven disruption has already brought profound change, but things have barely
started. Today the questions are getting more and more interesting.
